UA Engineers are designing software that will analyze intelligence data and help to devise strategies for handling complex political and military situations. Read all about in the story below.
Predicting the unpredictable
$2.2 million grant calls for designing software to
analyze intelligence data and develop strategies
by Ed Stiles
Electrical and Computer Engineering Prof. Jerzy Rozenblit has received a $2.2 million grant to design computer software to analyze volatile political and military situations.
The software will predict the actions of paramilitary groups, ethnic factions, terrorists and criminal groups, while aiding commanders in devising strategies for stabilizing areas before, during and after conflicts.
It also will have many civilian applications in finance, law enforcement, epidemiology and the aftermath of natural disasters, such as hurricane Katrina.
The Asymmetric Threat Response and Analysis Project, known as ATRAP, is a massively complex set of computer algorithms (mathematical procedures) that sift through millions of pieces of data, considering many factors including social, political, cultural, military and media influences, said Rozenblit, who holds the Raymond J. Oglethorpe Endowed Chair in the Electrical and Computer Engineering (ECE) Department.
The software can handle data loads that would overwhelm human analysts, while dispassionately exploring actions and behaviors based solely on the data, sidestepping human cultural biases that might rule out unorthodox or seemingly bizarre courses of action.
Actions sometimes defy logic
Since the end of the Cold War, our opponents have behaved in ways that defy what we would consider normal logic, pursuing actions that we find almost inconceivable, said Rozenblit, who heads the ECE department. Predicting these asymmetric behaviors is difficult and further complicated by the massive amounts of intelligence data available.
ATRAP will use sophisticated computational methods based on game theory, co-evolution and genetic development models to find solutions that make sense in illogical times.
Predicting the unpredictable
“The computer can explore very large and complex data sets that, as an individual or group, you could never analyze,” said Brian Ten Eyck, ATRAP project manager and associate director for research support in ECE. “ATRAP will serve as a cognitive amplifier for human analysts, suggesting connections and behavior patterns — and even predicting specific scenarios — that might never occur to them.
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In unstable areas, winning often means establishing an environment in which the factions co-exist in a win-win situation or at least in an equilibrium in which there are no rewards, and some penalties, for disturbing the status quo, Rozenblit said.
Quick Response is Vital
Ultimately, the software program will be designed to display data in graphical, 3-D and other forms that can be quickly grasped, allowing decision makers to rapidly respond to changing situations, Rozenblit said.
In managing conflicts such as those in Kosovo or Somalia in the 1990s, commanders will need to respond quickly. “In those situations, we don’t have two months to figure things out,” Rozenblit said. “So the second part of our project involves harnessing massively parallel computing architectures to do computations very rapidly.”
“The goal is to handle conflict areas in a manner that leads to stability and support so war is not necessary,” Rozenblit said. “That’s the philosophy behind much of the ATRAP effort.”
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